Intel More Than Quadrupled In A Year, So Why Has It Cooled? - Trefis

What the report says

Trefis reported that Intel’s sharp stock-market rebound has begun to cool after a year in which the shares rose more than fourfold. The analysis said Intel climbed about 308% over the past year, far ahead of an approximately 18% gain for the broader market, as investor focus shifted from concerns about the company’s survival to expectations for growth tied to AI infrastructure and manufacturing capacity.

According to Trefis, Intel’s trailing 12-month revenue reached roughly $57 billion, up 7.5%, compared with a three-year average growth rate near 2%. The report said AI-related businesses now account for about 60% of revenue and grew 40% year over year. Trefis also cited management’s view that CPUs are regaining importance in AI systems, alongside progress on Intel’s 18A manufacturing process, customer agreements including Google, Xeon server chip placement in Nvidia AI systems, and a tie-up involving Elon Musk’s ventures.

The main concern, Trefis said, is profitability. Intel remains loss-making on a net basis, with a trailing net margin around negative 20%, weaker than its three-year average of negative 13%. The report noted that Intel Foundry lost $2.4 billion in Q1 2026 as 18A production ramped, while gross margin guidance for Q2 2026 pointed lower because of ramp costs and higher input expenses.

Trefis framed the pullback—more than one-third below the 52-week high—as a sign that investors accept the demand story but want evidence that margins can recover. The key issue now is whether Intel can convert AI-driven revenue momentum and foundry progress into sustained earnings improvement.