Global lung cancer burden, trends, and projections from 2010 to 2050: A population-level severity framework integrating DALYs-per-case and mortality-to-incidence ratio

What the report says

PLOS One published a global ecological study on July 23, 2026, examining the burden of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer across 185 countries and territories. The authors, O. Freihat, M. Aamir, Z. Cselik, A. Kovacs and D. Sipos, used data from GLOBOCAN 2022, the Global Burden of Disease 2023 study and UN World Population Prospects 2024 to assess current patterns, trends from 2010 to 2023 and projections through 2050.

The study estimated that in 2022 there were 2.48 million new cases of tracheal, bronchus and lung cancer worldwide and 1.82 million deaths. Age-standardized incidence and mortality were reported at 23.6 and 16.8 per 100,000 people, respectively. The authors also estimated 46.7 million disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs, equal to 18.8 DALYs for each incident case, with higher burdens reported among males and in higher-SDI regions.

A key feature of the paper is a severity framework that combines the mortality-to-incidence ratio with DALYs per case. The authors said this approach can show differences in the average health loss faced by diagnosed patients, not only the size of the affected population. They found a moderate positive relationship between the two measures and noted wide variation across countries.

The study reported that age-standardized rates generally fell in high-income settings but rose in many low- and middle-income countries between 2010 and 2023. Its projections suggest population growth and aging could substantially increase future lung cancer burden, especially in lower-resource settings. The authors argue the findings support more targeted prevention, treatment and survivorship planning.