El Nino set to be most intense ‘for over a century’: UK forecasters

What the report says

UK forecasters have warned that the current El Nino episode could become the most intense in more than a century, with the Met Office saying sea surface temperatures may rise by more than 3C. The warning, reported by Al Jazeera on 21 August 2026, comes as climate scientists expect the event to increase the chances of drought, heavy rain, higher temperatures and other extreme weather.

The Met Office said the scale of the warming in the tropical Pacific would be unusual compared with a typical El Nino, which usually lifts sea surface temperatures by about 1C to 2C. Adam Scaife, the office’s head of long-range forecasting, described the signal in the models as unprecedented and said the outlook would likely exceed recent experience of El Nino’s global impacts.

According to the report, the event is expected to affect weather patterns across multiple regions, including wetter and stormier conditions in northwestern Europe and severe drought risk in parts of South America and the western Pacific. The article also places the forecast in the context of a year already marked by wildfires, drought and other climate extremes in places such as Indonesia and southwestern Europe.

The Met Office further said that, combined with human-driven climate change, the event could contribute to 2027 becoming the hottest year on record globally. That broader projection is a forecast, not a confirmed outcome, but it underscores why weather agencies are treating the El Nino closely as a factor likely to intensify climate-related disruptions.