East Africa: Refinery Rivalry - Billion-Dollar Oil Projects Expose East Africa's Long-Running Regional Tensions

What the report says

East Africa’s latest oil and refinery plans are being shaped by long-running competition over where major energy infrastructure should be built. In an analysis published by The Conversation Africa and carried by AllAfrica, Brendon J. Cannon says the region’s governments have spent years balancing cooperation and rivalry as they seek to turn oil discoveries into transport and refining hubs.

The article says Uganda, which found oil in 2006, first agreed with Kenya in 2014 on a crude pipeline from its Lake Albert fields to Kenya’s Lamu port, but that plan later collapsed. Uganda then shifted toward Tanzania, and the East African Crude Oil Pipeline to Tanga is now reported to be close to completion, with first oil expected in early 2027. The piece also notes that Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania have all been involved in discussions around a refinery linked to Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote, with the site shifting from Tanzania to Kenya’s Lamu after objections from Tanzania’s president.

Cannon argues that the choices have often reflected commercial and strategic calculations more than regional consensus. He says Kenya and Tanzania continue to compete to be East Africa’s main gateway for trade, while Uganda has tried to keep multiple options open. The article also highlights a separate Uganda-Tanzania memorandum with commodity trader Vitol Bahrain for a proposed US$20 billion energy hub in Tanga.

The broader significance, the analysis suggests, is that East Africa remains heavily dependent on imported fuel despite substantial oil reserves. That makes pipelines, refineries and ports central to questions of sovereignty, revenue retention and regional influence.