East Africa: From Red Sea to Sudan - Why Ethiopia's Instability Risks Destabilizing Horn of Africa

What the report says

Addis Standard, published by AllAfrica, says Ethiopia is facing renewed instability centered on Tigray, where recent clashes and reports of military mobilisation have raised fears that the country could slide back toward wider conflict. The article, dated 26 August 2026 and filed from Addis Abeba, argues that the 2022 Pretoria peace deal ended the fighting but left major political and constitutional issues unresolved.

According to the report, the most sensitive dispute remains Western Tigray, where Human Rights Watch has alleged continuing abuses and restrictions affecting Tigrayans, including displacement that has prevented large numbers of people from returning home. The piece also highlights the breakdown in trust between the federal government and Tigray’s political leadership after the TPLF in May restored the pre-war regional administration, a move that deepened disagreement over who has authority in the region.

The commentary says the risk is not limited to northern Ethiopia. It places the Tigray crisis alongside conflict in Sudan, tensions with Eritrea and rising competition over the Red Sea, warning that another war in Ethiopia could worsen insecurity across the Horn of Africa. It also notes that the European Union has urged de-escalation and political dialogue, while calling on the African Union, IGAD, the United Nations and other partners to do more than react to crises and instead support monitoring, accountability and a sustained political process.