Cape Town set for classic finale – what does history suggest could happen?

What the report says

South Africa and Australia are headed for a tense final day in the third Test in Cape Town after the home side batted through most of day four to set up a decisive finish. BBC Sport reports that South Africa reached 387 in their second innings, giving Australia a target of 288 to win and leaving the match and series finely balanced. Ryan Rickelton scored 101 and Wiaan Mulder made 115, while late runs with Kagiso Rabada helped push the lead to a challenging total.

The article says the target is large enough to create genuine uncertainty, with South Africa given a slight edge by the WinViz model, but with Australia still capable of chasing it down. BBC Sport notes that history at Newlands offers mixed signals: the highest successful fourth-innings chase at the ground was 331 by Australia in 2002, while totals above 288 have usually ended in defeats or draws. The pitch also appeared to get more difficult for batting later on day four, with spin increasingly influential.

The piece highlights Simon Harmer as a likely key figure for South Africa after his first-innings wickets, and points to Travis Head as one of Australia’s main hopes in a chase. Beyond the match itself, the result will also decide which team finishes the series top of the ICC Test rankings, adding further importance to a contest already described as a classic finale.