Bolsonaro favourite to win: What Brazil’s first round of elections tells us

What the report says

Al Jazeera reports that Brazil’s presidential race is heading to a run-off after right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro narrowly outperformed incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the first round of voting. According to the article, Bolsonaro won about 47 percent of the vote, while Lula received 45.1 percent, leaving neither candidate above the 50 percent needed for an outright victory. The decisive second round is scheduled for October 25.

The story says the result exceeded pre-election polling and strengthened Bolsonaro’s position in a contest that has become a rematch of the 2022 election. Flavio Bolsonaro, the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, told reporters that Brazilians want change. The article also notes that Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a prison sentence tied to a coup plot after his 2022 defeat, and that the family remains politically influential.

Al Jazeera says several Bolsonaro family members also won congressional seats, while the Liberal Party secured a large bloc in the Chamber of Deputies. Analysts quoted in the piece argued that Lula may struggle to attract voters from other candidates and that abstention could matter in the run-off. The article also places the contest in a wider regional context, saying a Bolsonaro victory could deepen Brazil’s alignment with the United States at a time of major economic ties with China.