Africa: UN Warns World Is Heading Past 1.5°c, but Window to Reverse Warming Remains

What the report says

The UN Environment Programme has warned that the world is on track to pass the 1.5°C warming limit in the next few years, with its latest assessment saying even the most favorable pathway still points to a peak around 1.8°C. The report, released Wednesday and cited by Capital FM in Nairobi, says crossing that threshold would sharply increase climate risks for countries and communities.

According to UNEP, higher temperatures would bring more intense extreme weather, greater pressure on food and water supplies, ecosystem damage and possible irreversible shifts in major climate systems. The agency says the challenge is no longer only preventing overshoot, but limiting how long temperatures stay above 1.5°C and then bringing them back down as quickly as possible.

The report outlines an “overshoot, peak and decline” approach that would require immediate cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions, including methane, a faster move away from fossil fuels and eventual net-zero emissions. It says carbon dioxide removal could help, but only as a supplement to deep emissions cuts, not a replacement. UNEP also says adaptation and mitigation must advance together, even though some losses may be permanent.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres and UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen both used the report to stress that extreme heat, wildfires and flooding are already becoming more dangerous. The warning matters because governments are preparing for further climate negotiations, where pressure is increasing to turn pledges into faster action and finance, especially for vulnerable and low-lying countries.