Africa’s steady growth conceals widening economic divide, IMF says

What the report says

The IMF says sub-Saharan Africa is likely to maintain growth of 4.5% in 2026 and 2027, according to an updated regional outlook reported by Uganda Business News. The fund said stronger export earnings in resource-rich economies, along with oil-related gains and policy changes in some countries, are helping offset pressure from the Middle East war and other external shocks. However, the update also suggests the region’s headline growth masks a widening split between better-performing resource exporters and countries facing larger external gaps.

Uganda Business News reported that the IMF sees current-account surpluses improving in oil exporters, while non-resource-intensive economies remain among the region’s fastest-growing but are expected to face slower growth and larger deficits. The fund also warned that inflation pressures are not easing evenly across the region, with median inflation projected to rise over the next few years. Debt burdens, weaker aid flows and high borrowing costs were highlighted as additional strains on government budgets.

The IMF urged governments to target support carefully, protect public finances and preserve spending on priority needs. It also warned that tighter monetary policy may still be needed in many countries to keep inflation contained. The outlook said risks remain tilted to the downside, including energy disruptions, aid reductions and weather shocks linked to El Niño.

For Uganda, the article said the IMF recently lowered its 2026 growth forecast but raised its 2027 projection, while the World Bank and Bank of Uganda have also trimmed their own forecasts. The report noted that the timing of first oil production remains important to Uganda’s medium-term outlook.