Africa: Military Coups Promise Change - 4 Ways They Can Leave African Countries Worse Off

What the report says

In an analysis published by The Conversation Africa and distributed by AllAfrica, political economist and legal scholar John Mukum Mbaku argues that military coups often fail to solve the economic and political problems their backers cite. The piece, dated 5 October 2026 and framed around cases across Africa, says coup leaders typically claim they are responding to mismanagement, falling living standards or instability, but that sustainable improvement depends instead on institutional reform, economic restructuring and cooperation with civil society.

Mbaku identifies four broad harms associated with coups: they can deepen intergroup tensions in societies shaped by ethnic and religious diversity; they can weaken entrepreneurship and investment by making rules and contracts less predictable; they can open the door to abuses against vulnerable groups and broader human rights violations; and they can erode the rule of law by concentrating power in military hands. The article cites examples including Egypt, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, The Gambia, Sudan and several Sahel states, while also referring to concerns raised by Freedom House and an IMF estimate on the economic cost of coups.

The analysis also places the issue in a wider policy context. It says African states need stronger civilian control of the military, more credible constitutional safeguards, and accountability measures for anyone who seizes power illegally. It notes that some countries, including Botswana, Mauritius, South Africa and Namibia, are presented as examples where stronger institutions and civilian oversight have helped reduce the appeal of military intervention.