Africa: El Niño and Disease Threaten West Africa's Cocoa Harvest

What the report says

Cocoa prices are climbing as traders weigh a mix of disease, weak pod development and the return of El Niño against supply prospects in West Africa, according to Daba Finance, distributed by AllAfrica. The report focuses on Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together produce more than half of the world’s cocoa, and says New York cocoa futures touched an 11-month high as the market looked ahead to the 2026/27 crop.

In Ghana, the Cocoa Board is projecting output of 650,000 metric tons for 2026/27, down 13% from the current season. Farmers there are dealing with black pod disease, swollen shoot disease and aging trees, while heavy rain and limited sunshine have slowed pod growth and made fungal control harder. In Côte d’Ivoire, early surveys point to about 1.8 million tons for the season beginning in September, an 18% decline from 2025/26, with poor pod formation and weather also raising concerns.

The article says El Niño could further pressure yields by bringing warmer, drier conditions that reduce soil moisture. It also notes that the market is coming off a period of stronger current supply: Côte d’Ivoire’s port arrivals are up this season, Ghana’s 2025/26 harvest was larger than the prior year, and exchange inventories have reached a two-year high. Even so, revised surplus forecasts from market analysts suggest the cushion may be narrowing, making weather and disease trends especially important for the next crop.