Africa: Conflict and Climate - Double Threat Driving Great Lakes Displacement

What the report says

An analysis published by the Institute for Security Studies and distributed by AllAfrica says displacement in the Great Lakes region is being driven by a growing overlap of conflict and climate impacts. The piece focuses on the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi and Rwanda, where years of armed violence have already uprooted millions and increasingly severe weather is now causing additional movement through floods, landslides and rising lake levels.

The article says the DRC continued to host the region’s largest internally displaced population by the end of 2025, while Burundi also had large numbers of displaced people, including many whose returns after earlier conflict remained unresolved. It notes that in the DRC, new displacement in 2025 was still largely tied to fighting, but climate-related events accounted for a significant share of displacement as well. In Burundi and parts of eastern DRC, repeated flooding and lake overflow have forced people to move, including some who had already fled violence.

The analysis argues that the two drivers often reinforce one another: camps and temporary shelters are exposed to weather shocks, and repeated displacement can deepen land pressure and tensions with host communities. Rwanda is presented as a contrasting case where internal displacement is described as mainly climate-related. The article also says regional and national responses remain fragmented, with prevention and long-term solutions lagging behind emergency aid.

As background, the authors call for better data, stronger early-warning systems and national laws that give practical effect to existing African and UN displacement frameworks. They say the issue matters because climate change and unresolved conflict are likely to widen an already protracted humanitarian and governance problem.