Africa: Africa Can See El Niño Coming - Will Countries Act in Time?

What the report says

An Institute for Security Studies analysis published by AllAfrica on 8 October 2026 says Africa already has advance warning of a strong El Niño event and should use that lead time to reduce damage before conditions worsen. The piece, written by Kgaugelo Mkumbeni and attributed to ISS Pretoria, says the World Meteorological Organization has indicated a 100% chance of El Niño conditions developing, with effects expected to last through February 2027. The article frames the event as a predictable climate shock that could deepen water, food and livelihood stress across the continent.

The analysis says El Niño can bring very different impacts across Africa, including drought in parts of Southern Africa and variable rainfall patterns in East, West and Central Africa. It highlights likely pressure points such as reduced water availability, crop losses, livestock stress, flooding, disease risks and disruptions to sanitation and energy systems. The article also points to past El Niño cycles, including 2015-2016, as evidence that these events can worsen droughts, floods and public health problems over time.

The report argues that governments and regional institutions should move from warning to action by pre-positioning funds, strengthening water systems, and coordinating across climate, disaster-risk, agriculture, health and security agencies. It notes that Africa has made progress on multi-hazard early warning systems, with 41 countries reporting such systems in 2026 compared with 14 in 2015, but says the main challenge is turning forecasts into timely decisions for vulnerable communities.

The article also cites recent anticipatory action efforts in Southern Africa, including support for more than two million people during the 2023-2024 season, as examples of what early financing and prepared delivery systems can achieve.