10-year Treasury yield climbs to highest level since January 2025 as $100 oil sparks inflation fears - Yahoo Finance

What the report says

Yahoo Finance reported that U.S. bond yields moved higher Thursday as rising oil prices and worsening conflict in the Middle East renewed investor concern about inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield, a key reference point for mortgage and other borrowing costs, reached 4.7%, its highest level since January 2025. The 30-year yield rose to 5.19%, the highest since May, and remained above 5% for its longest run since 2007, according to the report.

The market move came as Brent crude futures climbed to $100 a barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange. Yahoo tied the oil surge to reports of tanker strikes off Saudi Arabia’s coast amid escalating fighting between the United States and Iran. Higher energy prices can complicate the inflation outlook because fuel and transportation costs often influence broader consumer prices.

Yahoo noted that stocks had largely held up in recent weeks despite higher oil and Treasury yields, helped by enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and improving earnings expectations. The article cited Piper Sandler strategist Michael Kantrowitz, who said low short-term market volatility and rising earnings estimates have helped support equity valuations.

The yield increase also matters for Federal Reserve policy expectations. Yahoo reported that recent softer inflation readings had reduced concern about a Fed rate increase this year, with Goldman Sachs and UBS expecting rates to stay unchanged. However, the article said the oil-price jump could revive inflation pressure, and prediction-market odds for a 2026 rate hike rose to 71% Thursday. Investors are now watching incoming economic data for signals on inflation and monetary policy.